The Freight Exposure Check
Eight questions about how you ship. Your answers banded against published industry thresholds. No waiting, no obligation, and you can check every number we use.
Answerable from memory
Every question is answerable from memory. No research, no looking anything up.
Every threshold published
Every threshold comes from published data, and how we score it is public, further down this page.
Eight questions · ninety seconds
Want this written up?
We will email the full result with the sources, and if it is useful, put an hour on the calendar with Devin Larkin to go through what your own five numbers say.
That hour is a conversation, not a quote. Nothing gets priced unless you ask for it.
No obligation. If the check says you are in good shape, we will tell you that too.
Got it. The write-up is on its way to your inbox.
Most freight tools ask for your spend and return a saving they invented.
This one does the opposite: it takes what you already know and tells you where your program is visible and where it is not.
The five numbers
Whatever your result, these five tell you where you actually stand. Most companies cannot produce three of them, and that is usually the finding.
Freight cost as a percentage of sales, this year and last.
A commonly used planning assumption for mid-market manufacturers and distributors is around 4–5%, but the direction matters more than the benchmark.
Cost per shipment, both years.
Separates a volume story from a pricing story.
Total deductions last year, broken out by cause.
Not one general-ledger line.
Accessorial spend by charge code.
Detention behaves nothing like a liftgate fee, and they have different fixes.
Realized rate increase on your top 20 lanes
Against the increase that was announced.
After you finish
The result is the point. Everything after it is optional.
Your result, on screen
Ninety seconds in
All five dimensions at once, each banded and explained. No waiting, and no email needed to see it.
The write-up, if you want it
Optional
We will email the full result with the sources.
An hour with Devin Larkin, if it is useful
Optional
To go through what your own five numbers say. That hour is a conversation, not a quote. Nothing gets priced unless you ask for it.
No obligation
Always
If the check says you are in good shape, we will tell you that too.
How we score it
The five dimensions, what each band means, every threshold, and the source for each.
- Customer complianceFrom Q1, where your freight goes and Q5, deductions known
- Cost visibilityFrom Q2, annual freight spend and Q4, cost per shipment, two years
- Invoice integrityFrom Q6, who checks invoices
- Carrier accountabilityFrom Q7, what gets verified
- Internal ownershipFrom Q3, how often you ship and Q8, who owns freight
The five dimensions and how they band
Three bands: Managed, Partial, Exposed. Bands rather than a numeric score, because a score invites gaming and implies a precision we do not have.
| Dimension | Driven by | Managed | Partial | Exposed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer compliance | Q1 + Q5 | Deductions known by cause | Total known, not by cause | Not known, or no visibility |
| Cost visibility | Q2 + Q4 | Both years available | One year available | Neither, or spend “not sure” |
| Invoice integrity | Q6 | Audited against shipment records | AP pays them | Nobody specifically, or not sure |
| Carrier accountability | Q7 | Verified and recorded | Checked, not recorded | Provider handles it, or not sure |
| Internal ownership | Q3 + Q8 | Named owner, main job | Split across roles | Nobody, or nobody + ships daily |
Severity weighting and "We do not get deductions"
Severity weighting. Selecting any major-retail destination in Q1 raises the stakes on Customer compliance: the same answer bands worse for a retail shipper than a distributor-only shipper, because the penalty structures are harsher and the dispute windows shorter.
“We do not get deductions” does not score as Managed. It bands as Partial, because in practice it usually means nobody is looking at the remittance detail rather than that no deductions exist.
Thresholds and sources
| Figure | Used for | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Retailer deductions 5–15% of gross sales, unmanaged; ~20% preventable and unchallenged; Q4 concentration | Customer compliance | Talk Business & Politics, January 2026 (Jon Allen, Woodridge Group) |
| Walmart OTIF: 98% on-time collect, 90% prepaid, 95% in-full; 3% of cost of goods per line; monthly evaluation, quarterly billing | Customer compliance severity | Published Walmart supplier requirements, checked against Retail Link |
| Amazon $10 per carton label non-compliance; $25 per carton oversized or overweight | Customer compliance severity | Vendor Central fee schedule, checked |
| Dispute windows 30–90 days | Customer compliance | Multiple; published as a range |
| LTL cost per shipment more than 40% above its 2018 baseline; weight per shipment down 20% | Cost visibility | TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index |
| Accessorials ~6.1% of LTL spend (2016–21) rising to 8.7% (2023), up to 20% unmitigated; rules tariffs from 1–2 pages to 70+ | Invoice integrity | AFS Logistics, ~$1.2bn of LTL spend analyzed |
| Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, No. 24-1238, May 2026, 9-0 | Carrier accountability | SCOTUSblog |
| Freight cost to sales ~4–5% | The five numbers | Common industry planning assumption; a starting point, not a target |
What this check does not do
It does not price your freight, predict a saving, or tell you what a provider would charge. It bands five things you already know against figures published by others. It is a structured starting point, not an audit.
The Freight Exposure Check
Eight questions about how you ship. Your answers banded against published industry thresholds. No waiting, no obligation, and you can check every number we use.
Start the check