Those in the logistics business have recently speculated as to the direction of technology as it relates to warehousing and distribution advancements. The pace at which technology is advancing is exciting and a little frightening at the same time. The applications seem almost endless and keeping up on the technology can be a daunting task. Let’s take a look at a few emerging technologies in warehouse automation.

Collaborative Robots Infiltrate Human Interaction

Collaborative robots may be described as round one of the robotic invasions into warehouse operations. In this round, robots are introduced to work alongside, and in collaboration with, humans in the day-to-day operations of the warehouse and distribution centers. Last summer, Forbes gave smart cobots, otherwise known as ‘collaborative robots,’ the illustrious title of “the future of work”. It’s a declaration that struck a chord with many, perhaps because the idea of warehouse associates working alongside robots is a simpler image to accept than a fully automated operation in which robots replace living, breathing human workers.

While cobots are quite flexible when it comes to application, the most talked about are the picking and packing variety currently being used by Amazon. Cobots are a no-brainer for large warehouses owned by multichannel retailers who have the extra capital to invest in the technology. These lightweight robots can be programmed quickly and controlled remotely, require just a few hours of set-up time, are often mobile, and, as far as we know, are safer than many of their stagnant, bolted-down competitors.   Cobots will likely give way to the next generation of robot which will largely replace humans if not entirely.

On-Demand Warehousing

On-demand warehousing has been around for a while.  Now it has become more sophisticated in both space design and geographical placement all based upon big data.  Warehousing and DC centers need to be placed in strategic locations to meet the incredible delivery demands of today's consumers. Terabytes of data are being analyzed to decide exactly where to build strategic on-demand warehousing offering flexible utilization terms and easy highway access. Users want flexible warehouse space and supplier contracts that allow manufacturers to take advantage of the service as they scale and remove the services as they downsize. Third-party firms are offering up smart warehouses to manufacturers and suppliers at a fraction of the cost for the businesses to make the investments themselves. This means that even the most modest of startups can benefit from the use of the latest automated technologies, giving emerging businesses the opportunity to compete with the big guys on fulfillment time and accuracy.

Advanced Inventory Scanning Techniques

Fully automated warehouses  have been a hot topic as of late. Trailblazing companies, like Aquifi, have already found a way to automate the task of bar code and label scanning, eliminating the need for handheld scanning tools and the people who operate them. This technology is accomplished through a sophisticated smart dimensioning and 3D identification function that processes a warehouse’s items with more precision than ever before. It’s big news for operations that take advantage of tried and true asset tagging and bar coding. While these materials will not be replaced, the very scanners, and the people who use them, may soon be deemed obsolete.

3D Printing

3D printing has been around for a few years now.  It utilizes the 3rd dimension to not print, but build a particular item.  Most 3D applications are designed for simple replacement parts made out of basic materials. As printers become more sophisticated, the applications have expanded. The sneaker industry is just one example of 3D printing technology application. In the old days, making a customized piece of footwear meant a disruption in the everyday processing of the manufacturer’s movements and a much higher price tag for the customer. Ever since sneaker behemoth, Adidas, invested in 3D printing powerhouse Carbon, the once-fabled affordable customized sneaker is now a reality. In fact, consumers are so completely on board with this 3D-printed footwear option that Adidas is projected to sell millions of units in 2019 alone.

3D printing is also a powerful tool for plenty of other manufacturers, particularly those who are in the positions to take advantage of additive manufacturing according to the operation’s precise needs. This is a big win for manufacturers, as it reduces material waste and shortens processing time in one fell swoop. As technology continues to evolve, so does the variety find in the world’s smartest, most cutting-edge warehouses. Always pay attention to emerging automation technologies and the companies who are making them a reality. These are the very actors who will be dictating how we manufacture, distribute and consume goods in the years to come.

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The most recent edition of the Cass Freight Index Report issued this week by Cass Information Systems highlighted another month of freight transportation shipment and expenditure declines in September. The Cass freight index is widely considered the most accurate barometer of industry activity and trends.

September shipments, at 1.199, were up 0.8% compared to August and down 3.4% annually, marking the tenth consecutive month of annual shipment declines.

Shipments initially turned negative in December 2018 for the first time in 24 months, when it fell 0.8%. January and February were down 0.3% and 2.1%, respectively. As previously reported, the December and January shipment readings were up against respective all-time highs reached in December 2017 and January 2018, coupled with stabilizing patterns in nearly all underlying freight flows.

The culprit is generally considered to be weakness in spot market pricing for many transportation services, especially trucking, which is consistent with the negative Cass Shipments Index and, along with airfreight and railroad volume data, strengthens concerns about the economy and the risk of ongoing trade policy disputes. This weakness and decreases in the prime lending rate are supporting arguments for a looming recession.

The CASS report highlighted concerns regarding inflation and concerns about contract pricing and cancellation of transportation equipment orders, with four key factors playing a role, including:

1. Almost all modes of transportation used their pricing power to create    capacity, which first dampened and has now killed pricing power.

2. Spot pricing (not including fuel surcharge) in all three modes of truckload freight (dry van, reefer, and flatbed) has been falling for 15 months. Spot pricing, using dry van rates as a proxy, fell dramatically from its peak in June 2018 (more than $0.50 a mile) to at one point in May falling to more than 30.0%below contract pricing (a level Cass declared unsustainable). The highly discounted pricing available in the spot market has attracted an increased amount of demand, which has deteriorated pricing in the contract market (which is down $0.20 a mile or -9.7% in the last 14 months), and has begun to close the gap between contract and spot.

3. The cost of fuel (and resulting fuel surcharge) is included in the Cass Expenditures Index. Since the cost of diesel has been negative over the last 4 months on a YoY basis (down -5.4% June, down -5.8% in July, down -6.6% in August, down -7.9% in September), it is increasing the negative amount of pricing reported.

4. Whether driven by capacity addition/creation or lower fuel surcharges (or a combination of both, which is our best guess) the Expenditures Index has continued to decline: the September 2019 Index is down -4.5% from its peak in September 2018.

What To Expect

In the first half of 2019, around 640 trucking companies went bankrupt, according to industry data from Broughton Capital LLC. That's more than triple the amount of bankruptcies from the same period last year — 175.

The slow down in trucking has especially affected small carriers, who operate largely on the spot market. Trucking loads can either be picked up on demand through the spot market, or through a pre-arranged contract. The contract market comprises the vast majority of the trucking market, according to the American Trucking Associations.  Trucking has been in a recession since the first half of 2019, according to ACT Research. That fact doesn't surprise truck drivers, dozens of whom have seen their earnings slashed this year.

Spot market rates have crashed in 2019, while contract market rates haven't seen the same dip. According to the most recent Chainanalytics-Cowen Freight Indices report, dry van spot rates are down 16.1% from the same period in 2018. Contract rates in dry van are down 8.1%.

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There have been rumblings throughout the industry of a potential recession or economic slow down. The transportation industry has historically been an excellent barometer of the overall economic health of our manufacturing sectors. If you manufacturer it, you must ship it. Therefore, the logistics sector has significant foresight into the health of manufacturing both domestically and internationally. Third quarter numbers are not in just yet so we'll take a look at quarters one and two as well as some speculation about the rest of the year to make a somewhat educated guess as to what we might expect for the remainder of 2019 and 2020.

Hard Asset Allocation

The trucking business is asset heavy; meaning, it takes a lot of money to be in this business. The average cost of a standard tractor is about $120,000. Add sleeping accommodations brings you to $150,000. Trailers can run between $20,000 and $50,000 depending upon their additional goodies. Carriers of any significant size generally add 10 plus power units and twice that in trailers when making such an asset upgrade. There is typically millions of dollars in asset purchases at risk every year and estimating demand for transportation services is a critical science for the success of any asset based logistics organization. Over or under asset commitment and utilization can literally make or break a company so let's take a look at current conditions and see if we can project just how many trucks we should buy this year.

Macro View Of The Economy

While the US economy continues to stand on relatively firm ground, GDP growth has converged to its long-run trend of about 2%. Consumer spending growth is holding up, fueled by low unemployment and rising wages. In contrast, business spending and investment are not providing much support to GDP. Additionally, net exports are and will continue to be a drag on overall growth while the US dollar remains strong and imports outpace exports. It is likely that some of these drags will be offset by stimulus, including increased federal non-defense government spending and monetary easing.

GNP Predictions For 2020

Gross national product (GNP) is a broad measure of a nation's total economic activity. GNP is the value of all finished goods and services produced in a country in one year. As previously stated, we in the trucking business get a sneak preview of the developing GNP through industry demand. The demand boom of the last two years seems to hang on even as new truck orders slow. The trucks keep coming as if searching for the lost freight market of 2018. US Class 8 truck registrations lept 29.1% in the first five months of 2019, according to IHS Markit, the parent company of JOC.com. Those trucks simply add to an already overflowing pool of capacity that is improving shipper pricing leverage.

As the third quarter rolls toward trucking’s autumn peak season, “a lot of carriers are going to be more stingy with capital expenditure and adding capacity,” Dan Van Alstine, president and chief operating officer of Ruan, a dedicated trucking and logistics company, said at the recent SMC3 2019 Connections Conference in Colorado Springs. The benefactors of the current environment may be the owner/operators who own their own equipment and pay their own operating expenses.  As you might imagine, those costs can be staggering for a small business owner when it costs $500 just to fill your gas tank..

Dependence On Owner/Operators

Owner/operators have historically been the filler for carriers to maintain an acceptable level of capacity for both equipment and drivers. We'll see just how far out carriers are willing to walk on the ledge of financial commitment going into 2020. It's potentially a pivotal year. The current administration is under some significant pressure to keep the economic fire stoked so carriers can maintain asset funding. The first and second quarters of 2020 should be very telling as to the general health of our domestic manufacturing base.

What To Expect

According to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 19, 2019, U.S. GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.1% in 2019 from 3% in 2018. It is expected to be 2% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. The projected slowdown in 2019 and beyond is a side effect of the trade war, a key component of Trump's economic policies.

The unemployment rate will average 3.6% in 2019. It will increase slightly to 3.7% in 2020 and 3.8% in 2021. That's lower than the Fed's 6.7% target but former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen noted a lot of workers are part-time and would prefer full-time work. Also, most job growth is in low-paying retail and food service industries. Some people have been out of work for so long that they'll never be able to return to the high-paying jobs they used to have. Structural unemployment (unemployment resulting from industrial reorganization, typically due to technological change, rather than fluctuations in supply or demand.) has increased.

We will be monitoring these economic indicators over the next 12 months very closely.  To stay informed on this topic and others in our industry, subscribe to our blog.

The transportation and logistics industry are currently going through some major transformations. The current metamorphosis is creating opportunities as well as challenges. Successful shippers are looking for ways to adjust to the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities. The economy, labor, and I believe, most dramatic, is the technology component which will be the game changer. Astonishingly what seemed like an unrealistic idea ten years ago, today, is now plausible because of technology. From robotics to radio frequency identification technology to block chain applications, the possibilities are intriguing to say the least. The challenge for supply chain professionals is how to stay current on these applications and how they can give your business the competitive edge that often makes the difference between black and red on the financial statements. Here are a few key areas in which every supply chain professional should have a firm understanding.

Economic Forecasts

Everyone is enjoying a robust economic environment at home even with the Trump administrations tariff threats. The domestic manufacturing economic forecast is a practical place to start in planning your logistics budget both operationally and financially. It's not all about the dollars.  Shippers need to assure themselves of available assets to deliver and receive goods.  The driver shortage is real, there are no significant players entering the asset-based transportation industry so capacity issues will be a common challenge. Existing carriers can only add as much capacity as drivers available to operate the equipment. Online retail spending is estimated to increase up to 20-30% over the next 3-4 years. These growth estimates will impact future freight distributions and patterns by creating additional density for retailer’s networks. Crowd sourced delivery options, much like Uber, will become a significant pool of delivery drivers.  Automated trucks will become more increasingly in demand as soon as the technology can be trusted.

The Labor Outlook

Driver positions are not the only area in logistics that are suffering shortages. Qualified warehouse personnel are also in demand. Particularly, as warehouse and distribution centers evolve into a more complex and technology driven environment. There are many reasons why labor is a problem, but two hurdles stand out. First, trucking has historically paid less than other business’ competing for the same potential employee. Second, the nature of the job requires drivers to be away from home in some cases for weeks at a time. As freight volume continues to grow labor will become an even bigger issue. To attract more recruits, some experts have proposed establishing more enticing industry standards such as a higher base pay and a flex time policy. Neither idea has yet to gain much traction. The simple fact is that truck driving as a career does not appeal to today's young people. On the operations side colleges and universities have historically offered somewhat limited programs in logistics as a science. I would expect the training options should improve as demand for these services increases.

Technology and Big Data

There is little doubt that data and the technology which allows us to interpret and leverage that data will be the future of supply chain management. It is well known that many transportation and logistics companies are late adapters of technology. Some are starting to be shut out of contracts if they cannot provide the data and technology required by customers, especially cyber security. Larger customers are adding minimum levels of cyber security to their contracts; this requirement will eventually become SOP.

Many carriers are even more behind in using analytics to make smart operational decisions. They do not understand the competitive edge analytics can give them even the simplest terms like route maximization. Successful shippers are thriving by seeking the guidance of logistics professionals who are trained in and equipped with the latest technology that mitigates risk to their supply chain and brand value. We are in the middle of a paradigm shift in the way transportation and logistics is executed. Adapt accordingly or die.

Count on the logistics professionals at Land Link Traffic Systems to navigate your company through what is certain to be some challenging supply chain waters in 2019 and beyond.

In a bid to keep pace with their number one competitor, Walmart announced yesterday that they will offer free one day shipping on many items. Starting May 14, Walmart customers in Phoenix and Las Vegas who buy more than $35 worth of goods enjoyed free one-day shipping. The offer, which Walmart had hinted was in the works and will be applied to as many as 220,000 items, will extend to Southern California in the coming days and will reach about three-quarters of the United States by the end of the year. The $35 minimum was set with the expectation that the average Walmart at that price point would include several items thereby reducing individual unit shipping cost by sending the entire order in one box. Walmart's e-commerce business has not been profitable. In fact, management expects to lose more this year than they did in 2019. Amazon expects to spend $800 million this quarter to cut their shipping costs. Walmart's same day shipping is available to all customers without any membership fees. Amazon's service, on the other hand, is available only to Prime members at an annual cost of $119.

Walmart's Strategy

One thing is clear. The big package companies don't have enough capacity to handle the expected volume of same day deliveries from the big retailers. They may not even want the business. You can expect Target to be adding to the volume as well as other retailers.  Same day delivery from UPS or Fedex would be cost prohibitive. You'll find a range of about $27 to $55 at FedEx and about $30 to $63 at UPS which is clearly not a viable option. So what is Walmart's strategy for this same day service? Walmart is using a surprising strategy on free, next-day shipping that doesn't involve any of its 4,700 US stores. Instead, orders will be filled and shipped from 6 fulfillment centers across the U.S. Walmart plans to further drive down the costs of next-day shipping by making "aggressive investments" in automation and boxing technology. Fulfillment centers are better equipped for those kind of investments according to Walmart CEO, Marc Lore. Walmart will be utilizing its stores for same day order pickup. 

Who Is Gonna Make All These Same Day Deliveries   

The big retailers will have to utilize additional resources to UPS and FedEx. Dozens of start up companies are already in business offering same day delivery. The boom in        e-commerce sales has lead to a surge in package volume and shippers don't have the capacity or network to quickly deliver parcels. This has created a new market and presented a significant opportunity for last mile delivery startups to emerge.

Capital investment and labor are the deterrent to most companies entering the parcel market. For that reason, Deliv.com, Rodie and many others have opened up across the country with limited capital investment. They depend on private van and car owners to make the deliveries as contract workers which is very much like the Uber platform. With the driver unrest Uber has been recently experiencing, these start ups may find some new, willing drivers. The companies won't last if the drivers are not making an adequate wage and one also can't help but wonder when everyone became in such a hurry? To keep informed on this and other industry news, subscribe to our blog.

While a number of struggles remain, some conditions have softened in Q4 2018, giving logistics buyers more room to breathe. After a 2018 that saw record setting levels of freight hauling demand and driver pay as tonnage levels reached a 20 year high, the trucking industry is expected to remain strong in 2019 but undergo a bit of a cool down, economists say. Revenue growth remains healthy for all major U.S. transportation sectors, though recent events could level off the rate of growth for some segments in the coming months according to Fitch Ratings in its U.S. Transportation Trends spring report. 

For the economy and the trucking industry, 2018 was spectacular. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product expanded at a 3.5% rate in the third quarter, and the December jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the economy added a robust 312,000 positions.

The Teamsters union is threatening a strike over the terms of this years contract. As of October 25, the Teamsters National Freight Negotiating committee has received its last best offer from UPS freight. Voting on the contract will be happening throughout this week starting November 7. The previous contract was rejected on October 5th. There is a 30-day extension of the current contract which will expire on November 12th. The negotiating committee demanded:

1) tighter restrictions and limits on subcontracting and rail usage;
2) higher wage increases that are not split;
3) earning protection for city drivers when they perform dock work;
4) elimination of the new qualifiers for pension and vacation benefits; and
5) a week’s worth of vacation pay for all classifications based on 1/52 of the prior year’s earnings.

The negotiating committee has determined that the LBFO does not sufficiently address the issues raised by the members. Nevertheless, because of the company’s insistence that there is no more money to be had and in order to allow its members to make an informed decision on a question that will affect them and their family, the negotiating committee decided to submit the LBFO for acceptance or rejection. a strike has already been authorized. While a strike is a last resort, if the members reject this final offer from the company there will be no other options and there will be a strike at a time and location(s) determined by the negotiating committee.

The Repercussions of A UPS Strike

Two decades ago, 187,000 employees at UPS walked off the job for 16 days. As of Wednesday, the company’s union workers, now numbering 260,000, are threatening to do so again. The walkout on Aug. 4, 1997, led to hundreds of millions of dollars in losses for UPS. It was, at the time, one of the biggest nationwide strikes the country had ever seen. It was a different time, though. The strike impacted consumers differently than it would today since business owners saw the most direct effects, often unable to restock shelves. The consequences of a strike today may be much more severe than that of 20 years ago. The online community, from both a seller and purchaser viewpoint, will be dramatically affected. When we think online retailing we have to think about Amazon. They will be the barometer for the effects of a UPS strike on the economy and international commerce.

Amazon’s tight relationship with UPS is supplemented by one with the U.S. Postal Service. Should UPS be unable to deliver customer packages, it’s possible the retailer will lean heavier on the USPS. Trump, though, is no fan of that relationship, attacking Amazon in a series of tweets earlier this year, saying the company wasn’t paying enough to ship packages. Experts have disputed this position, saying Amazon and other online retailers have helped stanch the post office’s declining cash flow. Still, a weakened Amazon could bring another round of Trump attacks. Or, worse, inaction.

President Bill Clinton refused to stop the 1997 strike, even though he did have the legal power to do so under the Taft-Hartley Act. But Labor Secretary Alexis Herman strongly urged the two sides to stay at the negotiating table for 80 hours of talks in a five-day period. That pressure is credited as one of the reasons the strike didn’t last long. The LTL Strike of 1994 Crippled interstate commerce for weeks. I was a seasoned Transportation manager during the strike of 94. It involved the teamster drivers employed by some 20 plus common carries. LTL comprises the bulk of freight shipments domestically so the impact was huge. There was a mad scramble to consolidate shipments by carriers nationwide who were not experienced in consolidating small LTL shipments; typically 2-4 pallets. Equipment availability was severely impacted as was delivery schedules and rates. It was a bad time for shippers as they had to look toward truckload and expedited carriers to get their freight delivered. To make matters worse, the mid 90's began the JIT ( Just In Time )inventory system. Simply defined, It was a cost-saving measure to reduce inventory carrying costs started by the automotive industry. It was an effective business philosophy but relied heavily on tightly defined pickup and delivery windows. The significantly devastating downside of such a philosophy is definitely any type of work stoppage.

How Do Protect Your Business From A UPS Strike

It is not likely to happen but fortune smiles on those prepared. Asset availability is going to be the biggest issue. Given the timeframe of the potential threat, there is no time to go through the steps to get set up with additional providers. This is a time when an established 3PL can offer valuable alternatives quickly. In the event of a strike, contact Land Link Traffic Services to help your business get your product delivered. Visit us today www.Land-Link.com.

There's always a little risk involved in any decision. That's where the fun, and profit, begin. The trick, of course, is when, how much and how dangerous. When do you take the risk, what is your level of commitment and what is the downside? Taking and managing risk in today's supply chain market is simply the cost of doing business in a competitive market. Knowing how to manage that risk is becoming increasingly important. 

The transportation industry is enjoying a strong year that has the potential to be even stronger than the previous one. DAT reports a particularly robust year in shipping in 2017, especially in the second half. Based on what we have seen in the industry during that time, here are a few trends to watch for in the freight transportation industry for the remainder of 2018 as we approach the busy holiday shipping season.

The Capacity Crunch Will Continue

There is little reason to expect any relief in the ongoing equipment availability issue. Particularly when approaching the 3rd and 4th quarter holiday shipping demands. A significant contributor to the capacity crunch continues to be the driver shortage. Interest in a truck driving career by the younger generation is just not keeping up with the retiring rate of older drivers. The work is difficult. It involves working long hours, driving long distances, being away from family for long periods of time and less-than-ideal pay. Fewer drivers mean fewer trucks on the road to haul this increase in freight, which, in turn, drives up the rates because of the premium placed on securing a truck.

Another major factor is government regulation. The ELD mandate went into effect December 18. It essentially requires all motor carriers to install electronic devices in their trucks that will automatically track drivers’ hours of service. By law, drivers are only allowed to drive for 11 hours with a mandatory, continuous rest period of 10 hours, daily. This regulation is expensive for carriers to implement, particularly on large fleets. Training drivers to use it can be extremely time consuming and compliance is slow to reach 100%. The reduced driver hours, cost of implementation and general driver acceptance all affect the cost of operation. Which, of course, will be absorbed in the carrier rate structure.

Rates Remain Strong

Given the good health of the economy, specifically the freight economy, it comes as no surprise to see the LTL market having a healthy 2018. Basking in what one trucking executive called a “robust, bright” market, LTL carriers are planning expansion in 2018, coupled with continuing increases in LTL trucking rates. Several publicly owned LTL carriers will add terminals, trucks, trailers, and employees to their operations this year, as industrial and e-commerce freight demand fills more pallets. Higher rates will certainly bolster bottom lines at trucking companies with historically tight profit margins. And as freight demand increases, LTL carriers have stuck to the pricing discipline that helped them improve those margins and begin to expand operations or reinvest in their businesses in 2018, adding new equipment and hiring employees.

Shippers and Carriers Need to Adjust to the New Normal

Both shippers and carriers will have to be flexible in this new shipping environment. Most individuals generally only change behaviors if they can no longer deal with less-than-ideal situations. With that, it will be interesting to see how shippers, especially the ones that have a reputation for not being driver friendly, change their behaviors. Carriers will be looking to do business with "Preferred Shippers." Read our previous post on how to become just that in the eyes of your carriers. On the carrier side, if supply and demand stay relatively status quo, you will see carriers act more selectively with the business they handle. Carriers are taking significant increases for a specific business or flat-out refusing to work with shippers that are no longer a strategic choice for them. The days of taking your carrier and their drivers for granted may be over for good.

Technology May Disrupt The Status Quo

The freight industry is in the middle of a storm, with technology giving conventional processes a makeover and making it more efficient and transparent to the players in the market. Cutting-edge technological ideas have been mushrooming in the freight hauling space, with major corporations and startups tussling for a share of the market.

The freight economy is one of the largest markets in the United States, with over $700 billion in revenue every year and employing 8.7 million people in the industry. This provides an incentive for companies to cash in and it was inevitable that technology would be adapted to fit the market needs. And here we stand at the crossroads of innovation, with the impact of technology looking to change the facade of freight hauling forever. With the current market growth and capacity issues, it’s highly probable that more shippers will become willing to embrace any new technology or app that provides them with a truck. And carriers will be more than willing to embrace it if they feel those platforms can offer them higher and faster paying the freight. Having the experience and industry expertise to disseminate the dependability of the new approach and the integrity of the service provider can spell the difference between a successful experience and utter disaster. 

So, as we approach some of the busiest shipping months of the year in a market that can be challenging during high demand, it is useful to do some proactive contingency planning. Perhaps a combination of several discipline changes may be in order. In markets like this one, the counsel of a qualified Logistics professional can be a wise investment. Contact one of our Logistics experts www.Land-Link.com today for a no-obligation review of your current supply chain protocols. Be prepared for what may be a tumultuous freight market ahead.